That's not a horrible thing either
- if every bettor won, sportsbooks would be going belly up
far more often than they do, and bettors would run out of
places to play. And many bettors really don't care very much
about earning a long term profit. They like to have some action
on games as a form of recreation or excitement, not as an
investment decision. Many of these type of bettors are far
more interested in TV games than anything else, and they tend
to bet more on bigger games, like the Super Bowl or NCAA Tournament.
Much of the industry jargon considers money management as
important as picking winners, if not more so. And it certainly
is. But throwing around buzzwords like 'money management'
and describing esoteric concepts like 'isolate a percentage
of bankroll' and 'positive expectation bets' really doesn't
help the fortunes of most recreational bettors. If you, personally,
are content with betting for entertainment purposes only than
this essay will serve little purpose. But if you wish to be
a successful sports bettor, even as an amateur, and earn a
profit from your betting over an extended period of time,
here are some tips that should help you in that quest.
Don't bet into bad numbers.
Professional handicappers recognize the value of the half
point. On the average college basketball Saturday, for example,
there are at least ½ dozen games that are won or lost
against the spread by a point or less. If he bet on the game,
the pro bettor will be on the right side of just about every
one of those decisions. He'll either getting the push when
others lost, or he'll get the win when others pushed. (I use
'he' because, to be honest, every professional sports bettor
that I know is a man - this is a very segregated industry
in that regard). The pro will take the extra time to shop
around for the best number at multiple sportsbooks. He'll
have accounts that are funded in enough places to ensure that
when he finds the line that he is looking for, he'll be able
to place the bet. And he'll have an idea of which direction
the line is likely to move, enabling him to bet early or late,
depending on which time offers an advantageous number. The
pro wins by a half point far more often than he loses by the
hook. Making a modest 20 bets a week (1000 a year, a number
that is on the low side for most professionals), it is not
unusual to gain an extra 10 or 15 wins a year and another
10 or 15 pushes just by betting into good numbers. Assuming
the bettor is betting a modest 2% of his bankroll on any given
play, those 20 or 30 favorable decisions translates into a
40-60% swing in his return on his sports betting investment.
That's not chump change, folks, it's hard earned profit gained
one half point at a time!
Make more straight bets and fewer parlays.
Professional bettors make the vast majority of their bets
as straight bets, not as parlays. For amateurs, the number
is closer to 50:50, and there are many, many amateurs who
rarely straight bet at all. But the straight bet is the pro's
bread and butter. Professionals are satisfied with the return
on investment from a 3-2 day, or a 12-8 week. They are in
it for the long haul, not always looking for the quick score
that parlays provide. Amateurs are often lured by the big
paydays that winning parlays provide, conveniently forgetting
that a season largely consisting of steady 2-1 type days will
be even more profitable than the big hits that parlays provide
even in a good overall season. Straight bettors never curse
the 4-1 days - when they pick more winners than losers - because
they make a profit every time, while parlay bettors don't.
There's a reason that every sportsbook in Las Vegas has their
parlay cards prominently displayed - frankly, parlays pay
the bills at most joints here in town. That's not to say pro
bettors never go for the long shot score, but when they do,
they do it for a considerably lesser percentage of their bankroll,
and they do it in conjunction with their straight bets, not
in lieu of them.
Concentrate more on box scores and less on final scores.
It's easy to look at the final score of a game and make all
kinds of false assumptions. This team got killed, that team
gave 'em all they could handle. But without reading game recaps
and looking at box scores, you really have no idea of what
took place, and what kind of current form the teams you are
examining are in. It's key to handicap games again, after
the games are over. What happened that you expected to happen,
and what was a surprise? Which things are likely to repeat
themselves, and which are something of an anomaly? Here's
an example. The Pistons play the Bulls at home, as nine point
favorites, but win by only seven, 97-90. But looking at the
box score, it's clear that Detroit dominated for most of the
game. The Pistons won the rebounding battle and forced the
Bulls into turnovers. They led by double digits at halftime
and after three quarters. Bu the Bulls hit some late shots
in garbage time and made the final score closer than the game
was. On that same night, the Raptors are nine point favorites
to the Nuggets, and win by that same 97-90 margin. But the
box score here indicates a whole different story. The Raptors
trailed throughout this game, but got hot in the 4th quarter
to steal the win. Toronto made an uncharacteristic 27-30 from
the free throw line, and hit ten three pointers, while Denver
shot just 4-19 in the 4th quarter. By examining the box scores
you can recognize that the Pistons are in better form than
the Raptors and/or the Nuggets are in better form than the
Bulls, making your future wagers involving those teams more
likely to be successful, even though the final scores of the
two games were exactly the same.
Take advantage of value.
Linesmakers have a pretty good idea of which way the money
is going to flow once they hang their opening numbers. And
amateur bettors are a big part of this, falling in love with
'public' teams, betting them over and over again. In college
sports, these 'public' teams are usually in the Top 25, from
a major conference - well known schools. In the pro sports,
they are the hottest teams, teams at the top of their respective
divisions or conferences. The professional bettor will recognize
this public bias, notice that the lines are inflated for many
of the best teams in the country, and either bet against many
of the good teams or pass on their games entirely. Instead,
the pro's concentrate much more on backing the 'good but not
great' type of squads, teams that have fallen underneath the
public's collective radar, as well as fading some of the mediocre
type squads that are in poor current form. The pros bet against
Top 25 clubs far more often than they back 'em - that's where
the value is, catching six points with an underdog that should
only be getting four. It's equally important to recognize
when the linesmakers have priced you out of a play. Kentucky
and Arizona have been red hot in college basketball for the
last couple of months, and they are the top two teams in the
whole country right now. While few bettors of any ilk like
to step in front of juggernauts like these, they also recognize
that the time to back these two schools has come and gone
- there's no value on their respective sides. Both clubs had
great records against the spread at one point this season,
but neither is above .500 vs. the number here in February.
Be smart when betting your streaks.
It's one of the most common mistakes that amateurs make,
and it's quite possibly the most costly. They press their
losses, raising the stakes to get back to even off a losing
week/streak. Pro bettors know that there will be times when
you lose more than you win. Hopefully, those times are few
and far between, but inevitably, they will happen to everybody.
Rather than raising the stakes during those times when you
are having a bad run, the pro lowers his stakes, conserving
bankroll while waiting for things to turn around. There's
no 'double or nothing' attitude on Monday Night Football games
for the pro. Conversely, the pro knows that winning streaks
are the time to press your bets, not the time to pull back
with a conservative approach to their recent profit. When
a 'capper is in good form and good rhythm, with his read on
the games in solid form and the bounces generally falling
in his direction, he's not afraid to raise his stakes a bit,
making larger plays when the percentages are in his favor
(positive expectation wagers) It sounds so basic - don't chase
losses, ride your winning streaks, but few amateur bettors
are able to maintain an even keel during periods of higher
rates than the norm of both successes and of failures.
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