Sports Betting Tips
As a person who grew up as a "bookie" in high school and has been in the "gambling" business for over 30 years, I'd like to give you a few betting tips on football betting and other sports for fun and profit. Except for a few years, I've always been "in the black" for football, and for a few years, my "Best Bets", have been a remarkable over 70% correct.
Betting Tips #1 - "Risk versus Reward" - Donald Trump had a saying in his book "The Art of the Deal". Protect the downside and the upside will take care of itself. Many times in business investors take unnecessary risks with very little potential gains. The same thing applies in sports betting. It really is ridiculous to risk $1000 to win $150, no matter how good you think your team is. The upside does not outweigh the downside. You are "playing with fire”, and eventually you will get "burnt".
Betting Tips #2-"Wiseguys versus Squares”. Being in this industry, it is remarkable how many times I see the public (or stupid) money being placed on the favorite and the over. Even when the odds are -110 (a coin flip minus the juice), the small bettor loves his favorite and the over. The smart money (professional money) usually goes to the "Dog”, and the under. Think of it this way too, right off the bat, you start by covering your bet and the other side must catch you. If you have a choice, take the under and the underdog, and be very "wary", of laying more than 7 points on the NFL.
Betting Tips #3 - "Value Bets"- The best way to bet is to look for odds that you feel are "Out of Whack". I just made money today on golf betting, in which I had Tiger Woods versus Phil Mickelson, head to head, in the U.S. Open. The bet was who would finish with a better score. Mickelson went off at +360, meaning I would get over 3 and 1/2 times my money if Mickelson won. In my mind it was a "coin flip". I bet Mickelson knowing I would get good "value" for my money. Mickelson won, and I got paid well. If he had lost, I would have lost very little. That is your job, to look for good "value" on your money.
Betting Tips #4- "Be a Contrarian". Trading the Stock Market and Commodities taught me one simple rule, "90% of people lose money, so if you want to make money, then do the opposite of what all the losers are doing". This applies to sports betting as well. The casinos in Vegas want even money on both sides. They manipulate lines to sway you in a certain direction. When a team is favored by 6 points that means that all of the "smart money"is going on the underdog and they want you to say; "It's less than a touchdown, I'll take the favorite". Don’t fall for it, bet the "Dog". Find out what everyone else is doing and do the opposite, and don't take anyone's advice on anything (except me!). If they knew what they were talking about, they would do it themselves.
Betting Tips #5- "Consistency"- Look for teams that usually cover in spread-betting.19.html" class="internalLink">spread betting, or at least "show up" and play hard every week. The last thing you need is a team that plays well one week and bad the next. They are too difficult to judge. You want a team that "consistently", week in and week out, plays hard and gives you a good run for your money. A few years ago, Navy seemed to "cover", every week and even when they didn't, they still played hard. This way you know that you will win more games than you lose and that is the name of the game.
Betting Tips #6 -"The Big Tease"- Probably the best way to make money betting is on "Big Teasers". 10 or 13 points teaser betting is an easy way to "pad" your bank account. The "catch" is you have to pick 3 or 4 games correctly in order to make the same money as a straight bet. But think about it this way, if someone told you that you could add 99 points to your favorite team but you had be right 99 times, would you do it?. Of course you would. The point being don't worry about the number of games, just teaser bet as many points as possible. If you can take a 13 point favorite and knock them down to a pick, or a 10 point favorite and take them down to even, in theory they should win the game. Just knock the favorite down to a point spread that you feel comfortable with. Another good idea is taking a 2 point dog and adding 13 to get more than a 2 Touchdowns. They should be in the game and they should cover. Don't mess with 6 or 7 points "Small teasers", they are a big waste of time.
Betting Tips #7- "Buying 1/2 points"- In general buying 1/2 - 3 points in nfl betting is a bad idea. For every 1/2 point you buy, you increase the "juice" by 10%, and you are really not helping yourself that much. There is one exception to the rule, however, buying a 1/2 point when the spread is 3 or 7. This costs you a little bit more, as the "juice" is bumped up to -130, but it can be worth it. If you're absolutely sure this is going to be a close game, and you feel that a late field goal will win it, then take the "dog"+3,and add a 1/2 point to make it +3 1/2. This protects you in case of a late field goal, and the difference between 3 and 7 points is very little. You can feel pretty confident that if the score is tied late in the game, that you will cover. Also by adding 1/2 point to 7, your team must be beaten by more than a TD in order to lose. This can also be done in reverse, by subtracting 1/2 point from the favorite, to make them a 2 1/2 or 6 1/2 point favorite, meaning a field goal or TD covers for your favorite team.
Betting Tips #8- "Futures Bets"- Sometimes you can get incredible odds by placing your bet way in advance. In tennis for instance, you can look at the draw of a Grand Slam and see that your player has no real danger until the semifinals or finals, so you can bet him before the tournament at greater odds. A few years ago Andre Agassi was playing well but he was old. I looked at the draw and saw there was no one early in the tournament that he couldn't beat. I bet him at 35-1. He went all the way to the finals and almost won. That’s good "Value" for your money (See Tip #3). I also got 25-1 and 35-1 on the N.Y. Giants to win the Super Bowl 2 years ago by betting them in October. When they got there, I bet enough money on the Patriots, as to cover my losses. Therefore if the "Pats" win I break even, if the Giants win i make a lot of money. That's smart gambling. Oh by the way, the Giants won.
Betting Tips #9-"Parlays"- In general parlay betting is a "sucker bet". As a "bookie", I make my living off of idiots trying to pick 3 or 4 games on a parlay. It's hard enough to pick 1 game correctly let alone 3 or 4. When I receive a parlay bet, and I am watching the games I realize that as a bookie I must just win 1 game to win, the bettor must be 100%. In general don't do it. If you must, don't ever play more than a 2 or 3 team parlay. Maybe if it's Thanksgiving, and you’re sitting with your relatives, and want some action on the games, or you are 100% certain on 1 team and you play a 2 team parlay, where your "sure thing", activates your 2nd bet, then I can see it. Other than that stay away from parlays they are for "squares".
Betting Tips #10- "Parlaying Moneylines"- There is however one way to use parlays that is very profitable, parlaying the money lines on favorites. In general you don't want to risk a lot of money on a big favorite, you also don't want to lay a bunch of points. The problem can be solved by picking 2 or 3 favorites and parlaying the moneylines. This is very similar to playing a "Big Teaser". You take 3 teams you are sure will win the game, but not sure they will cover, and parlay their money lines. You risk less money and still get a decent payout. If you really want to take a chance you can add in a very small dog (+120) to greatly increase your profit potential.
Betting Tips #11- "Monday Line Movements"- One of the best tips I've ever been given was listed in Maxim magazine a few years ago. It said that follow the new fresh line movements and Monday afternoon right when they come out. The casinos in Vegas create a line in order to get equal money on both sides. Sometimes they make mistakes and a line is off the mark. When this happens the "Wise guys" or professional money will jump on one side, creating a sharp line movement. This is the side you want to be on. This doesn't apply later in the week, as this is when the "squares" are just following the trend.
Betting Tips #12- "Middling"- There is a one way to cut down your risk, and greatly improve your profit potential. It is known as "catching the “middle" or "middling". What you try to do is look for lines that are close but are separated by a point or 2.For instance if a team starts out as a 6 1/2 point favorite, you can bet the favorite, and when it goes to 7 1/2. play the "dog". By doing this you are guaranteed to lose the "juice, but if the favorite wins by 7 you win both sides, and make a bundle. This can be done by line movements, but the much simpler way is to have different accounts at different sports books, and find different lines in which it is possible to bet both ways, therefore risking little and maybe making a lot.
Betting Tips #13-"Halftime Bets"- Another way to ¨Middle¨ is by using halftime bets. Say for instance you bet under 44 on a particular game. The score at halftime is 10-3, for a total of 13. The halftime line is 22. You can bet over 22 at the half. If the total goes under 22 at the half, you lose only the "juice”, because you win your full game bet. If the total goes over 31 at the half, you lose only the "juice", because you win your halftime bet. Now here is the fun part, if the final game total is between 36 to 43 you win both bets. On 35 and 44 it's a "push" or tie on 1 side and that bet is cancelled. Therefore you risk only the "juice"in order to win both bets. On a $100 bet you will lose $10, but you may win $200, not bad huh!
Betting Tips #14-"Bad Weather"- One of the easiest ways to make money is simply betting the under, when the weather is very bad. This is not 100% full proof but nothing ever is in gambling. Teams do fumble in bad weather which could affect the score but in general when the field is bad and the weather is lousy, teams can not run their offenses. There was a game a few years back on Monday Night Football, in which the Steelers played the Dolphins on a field that was a mess due to lots of rain. The game was tied in the 4th Quarter 0-0, and it looked like no one would score. The receivers were "slipping and sliding", and 1 punt just stuck into the field and didn't move. I think the final score was 3-0, but if you knew the game conditions before the game and bet the under you had an easy winner.
Betting Tips #15-"Huge Dogs"- It never ceases to amaze me how many people like to play the favorite when their team is favored by a large number of points. Sometimes in college football, teams do like to "run up the score", but in the pros, the only thing that matters is winning the game. Therefore in a close game in the 4th quarter, the team that is ahead, probably the favorite, only wants to win the game. They don't care about making money for you. This applies to "Big Teasers” as well. If your team started by being a 13 point underdog and you added 13 points to make them a 26 point "dog", if the favorite has a 17 point lead with 8 minutes left in the game, they are going to be trying to "run out the clock", and just win the game, (NOT COVER), and by taking the dog and 26 you will surely win. This why in sports betting, "it is better to receive than to give".
Betting Tips #16-"Week 2"-This tip is just something I picked up over the years. After Week 1 of the regular season in pro football, sometimes many people feel that 1 team is good and the other is bad. For instance if 1 team gets killed Week 1 and another played a great game Week 1,and those 2 teams face each other in Week 2, many people feel that the team that is 1-0 will kill the other team. Actually more often then not, the opposite happens and the roles are reversed in Week 2, and the underdog wins. Teams look at tapes and make adjustments and usually play well Week 2. Week 2 is a great week to look for” juicy" upsets, as the lines are often a little bit off.
Betting Tips #17-"Playoffs Week 1 and 2"- After the regular season bettors are always high on the division winners during "Wildcard Weekend”. Not so fast, many times a hot team that finishes second in their division may be the better team. Maybe they had injury problems early in the year, or just missed winning the division. Now they have a second chance. Also important is a team that wins a "weak” division might not be that good. Look for a nice "dog", during "Wildcard Weekend". Consequently during Week 2 the opposite applies. After watching a team win during "Wildcard Weekend", everyone starts saying "This team is going win next week", not so fast. History shows that usually the road team in Week 2 gets "blown out”, by the home team that is rested, had an extra week to prepare, and is probably better to begin with.
Betting Tips #18-"Preseason bets"- Betting on the preseason can be dangerous if you don't know what you are doing, and profitable if you do. First off teams don't have their offenses down and wouldn't show their "whole package" if they did. Bet the under. Second of all, bet on the team that is "deeper and has a better "bench". The game will be won the 2nd half when all the reserves are trying to make the team. A team like the Giants that have good 2nd and 3rd string players that could start for most teams, are going to have a big advantage over a team like Detroit that barley has a good first string. Thirdly no one really cares who wins these games, so playing the moneyline on the underdog, is a good way to get value on a game that is basically a "coin flip".
Betting Tips #19- "Use your Gut" - How many times have you placed a bet and then got "queasy" in you stomach when you start to watch the game. Consequently how many times have you placed a "Big Tease" for instance and said to yourself, "I can't see how this bet can lose". Your subconscious knows whether or not you placed a "stupid" bet. Listen to your "Gut" and you will be O.K..
Betting Tips #20 - "Discipline"- Follow your own rules. Make a set of "betting" rules and don't break your own rules. Often times, gamblers "Go On Tilt", whether or not it's on the poker table or at their Sports book. I have 1 customer who is a very savy and good bettor, but when he starts to lose, he doubles down on stupid stuff like betting huge amounts of money on the first 5 innings of a baseball game or 1 team’s total runs in order to get back to even. This is something he would never do unless he was "On Tilt" and losing his mind. Stay focused and don't break your "Set of Rules".
Reverse Line Movement
One of the most peculiar things in sports betting is the reverse line movement. That is, when the majority of the public is betting on one side of a point spread, and, instead of moving up, the spread moves down. For example, if the Southern California Trojans were 7 point favorites and 75% of the public was betting on USC, then instead of moving to 8 or 9 points, the line moves to 6 or even 5 points. It is a strange phenomenon. One would think that the more money coming in on one side, the higher the spread would move.
Parlay Bet
A parlay bet is made by placing a concurrent wager on two or more teams (often limited to 12 teams). To cash a parlay bet, the bettor must pick the winner in each game contested. The plays needn't run in a specific order, and games used in parlay betting may be selected using spreads, money lines or combinations ...
Understanding Sports Betting
Sports betting is one of the most popular avenues of gambling in the United States. Like poker, it has been essentially outlawed online, though there are a few sites that still allow U.S. customers. For most Americans, sports betting is most convenient to do from your own home ...
The Art of Half Time Betting
Imagine that you are settling in to watch the Super Bowl, and after days of handicapping you think you have it figured out: the Saints are favored by six points and you are convinced they are going to cover. At the half, the Saints are winning by 10 points, and the sports books offer a pick em for the second half. From the way things have been going in the first half, the Saints are the right side for the second half
Betting the Moneyline
In sports betting, whether you are placing wagers on the NBA, NFL or college sports, it is always tempting to forego the point spread altogether and just bet more money on a money line. You won’t have to sweat out a team winning by 15 instead of 14, and as long as they win, you win.
Money Management in Sports Betting
One of the reasons why the vast majority of new sports bettors fail and bust quickly is due to a lack of basic bankroll management. It is one of the foundations of profitable sports betting: don’t bet beyond your means. At any given time, you should not be betting more than 5 percent of your bankroll on a game. Just like you wouldn’t put all of your stock portfolio into a single stock, you would never want to put a large percentage of your bankroll onto one game. No matter how soft a line looks
Betting College Basketball Futures
As I have written numerous times in the past, line shopping is one of the most important parts of sports betting, and one of the biggest advantages to betting sports online in general. It is critical in the long term to have money in several different books, simply because all books offer different lines regularly. Even if the line is the same at two books, one may offer a reduced line because money is coming in differently at both sites.
Teaser Betting
In a nutshell squares lose money betting teasers, and sports books would love to deposit that directly in their coffers. Sharps make more money betting teasers than squares lose, so the sports books aren't coming out ahead on the deal.
