2009 Triple Crown
“Who am I to disagree, I travel the world and seven seas, everybody’s looking for something” and the dreamers on the backstretch and in the grandstands are looking for that next Triple Crown Champion.
It’s a search that keeps us all young and in 2009, there will be contenders that get sidelined by injury, former pretenders that just happen to peak at the right time and then there will be the sophomores that show up on the first Saturday in May and duke it out.
One angle that has surfaced in the last few years is the synthetic to the conventional evaluation and it must be discussed. So how did the class of 2008 come into the Kentucky Derby as far as synthetic racing is concerned?
Face it, Big Brown just put in a freakish performance breaking from post 20 and winning like a true superstar. He had only raced on conventional dirt or grass going into the Derby.
Place-horse Eight Belles also had not raced on a synthetic surface but she worked well on the Polytrack at Keeneland about 2 weeks before the Derby. Superfecta players Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati didn’t race on the synthetic either but Ekati also worked at Keeneland.
The final tally shows that of the 20 starters in the Derby last year, 7 were coming out of races run on the synthetic and those 7 ran sixth, eighth, ninth, twelfth, fifteenth, eighteenth and twentieth. This is an angle that will have more credence as the data unfolds, but it has been clear that around the country, some horses take to the synthetic surfaces and some just handle the “old school” dirt.
Now is as good a time as any to take an early look at the upcoming Triple Crown and there are plenty of runners that seemingly have the potential to excel.
My friends know that I’m not exactly the hippest guy around and although I’m not old fashioned, bettors have to give the sophomore with that same name a long look this spring.
To say Old Fashioned has lived up to his pre-career billing is an understatement as he’s unbeaten in 3 outs with improving Beyer figures. He cost $800,000 and so far has done his part to prove he’s worth the price.
Bred to run all day, his grandsire took the 1990 Kentucky Derby and his dam Collect Call was a flat-out runner.
Collect Call took a Grade 3 on her way to near $450,000 career and although she was never sent the classic distance of a mile and a quarter, she won a stakes at 9 furlongs pulling away at the end.
On top of the quality and the pedigree, Old Fashioned is in the right hands. Her trainer Larry Jones has had big success in the spring in Kentucky as his student Proud Spell took Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, proving he knows how to map out a campaign and he will start his charge off at Oaklawn this winter.
Two sophomores have been down graded because they are trying to do something that has never successfully been done and that’s train in Dubai and win the most important race in America.
Both Midshipman and Vineyard Haven will have to travel half way around the world to gain Triple Crown glory and although both are talented runners, that will be a chore.
Vineyard Haven had the excuse of mud for his only loss but he won two Grade 1’s as a juvenile and he did it by increasing the winning margin in the drive.
Midshipman ran 4 bang up races last year, only lost once and is the champ in the clubhouse after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
The edge he may have on Vineyard Haven is that he may be more tractable, but both runners will be re-writing history if they can pull off Triple Crown success.
Nobody will question Pioneer of the Nile’s chances to get the distance of the Derby as his Dad Empire Maker won the Belmont Stakes. The colt ran into a traffic jam in the BC Juvenile but proved that he wears his heart on his sleeve by winning the Cash Call Futurity by a hard–fought nose.
His dam, Star of Goshen won a stakes, only lost once and is kin to near $600,000 earner Powis Castle.
Come April and you are confused about what avenue to take, know that No Detour could very well have his mind set on business.
Out of a winning dam, this colt has been a slow learner but the feeling is that once the light bulb goes on, he’ll string together wins. A half brother to the dam, Comeonmom, won the Remsen at 9 furlongs and was also 2nd a half-length at a mile and a quarter in Dubai. And half brother Nolan’s Cat banked over $400,000, carried speed 9 furlongs successfully, was third in the Belmont Stakes, and was 2nd by a half length at a mile and a quarter early in his career at Churchill.
A list of genuine contenders would not be complete without giving the ladies a nod and the top lady in the house is Stardom Bound.
Once this daughter of highly talented Tapit, who won at 9 furlongs and was troubled in Smarty Jones’ Kentucky Derby, was given some real estate to cover, she blossomed. Educated in her first couple of races, she improved from Day One and her style suggests she’ll run all day long. Full sister Moneypenny also won routing and was making up ground late a couple of times at 9 furlongs.
If she decides to try the boys, she should have enough seasoning to have a legit chance of success.
As the days dwindle down on the Triple Crown Trail, try to isolate runners that have had campaigns carefully mapped out. Sure, there will be some up and comers that blossom, but having the proper foundation, staying sound as a drum and having the ability to get the classic distance, will be the deal breaker when things are said and done.
