2010 Major League Baseball |
America’s pastime is upon us, and that means from April to September, pro baseball is back. For most of the country, it signals the time to be outside throwing catch or sitting in a ballpark eating hot dogs. For others, it is an opportunity to make some long term money on soft lines, and watch them develop over the course of the long season.
NL East – This division belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies, or some would have you think. The Phils are -165 to win the division, and that looks somewhat safe. But the Florida Marlins and Atlanta Braves have been coming on strong lately, and both have a legitimate shot of surprising Philadelphia and winning the NL East. On The Greek, the Marlins and the Braves are +200 to win the NL East. From what we have seen out of slugger Jason Heyward and ace pitcher Tim Hudson, the Braves look to challenge for the division title, or at least the wild card. The Marlins, behind star shortstop Hanley Ramirez and pitcher Josh Johnson, could also make a play for the NL East crown.
NL Central – Ask anyone who follows baseball, and they will tell you that the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs will be the favorite to win the NL Central. However, looking past the top two squads, the division is one of the most open one in pro baseball, and for good reason. With six members, it’s also the biggest division in baseball. There is a good chance that Chicago will get out to a big lead, as the Cubs have a very favorable early season schedule. However, Milwaukee’s rotation is deep, and their batting, behind Prince Fielder, should be enough to win some close games. The bet “any other” team winning besides Chicago or St. Louis at +300 is a good value, as Milwaukee wins this division more than 25% of the time.
NL West – While Las Vegas views the Los Angeles Dodgers as the strongest team in this division, talking heads and ESPN analysts are predicting a run from the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are a great value at +220 to win the NL West, and are an even better value at +1215 to win the NL Pennant. However, so is another team in the division. Arizona at +325 to win the NL West and +1815 to win the NL Pennant is equally attractive. The Rockies have as much depth from top to bottom of their batting order as anybody in the National League, while Arizona has the pieces to potentially win the NL Pennant if things shake out right. Of course, if things don’t go Arizona’s way, the Diamondbacks could be out of the discussion after the All Star Break. We’ll know early whether or not Arizona is a good bet, but for now, it looks appetizing at +325 and +1815.
AL East – The division with three of the best teams in baseball, there isn’t a ton of value in betting on the Yankees to win it at -115 or the Red Sox to win it at +155. Both Boston and New York have made impressive additions to their rosters. For the Yankees, Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson will provide depth in the batting lineup, and pitcher Javier Vasquez will further solidify an already stellar pitching rotation for the Yankees. The Red Sox improved on defense with outfielder Mike Cameron and third baseman Adrian Beltre, and in their pitching rotation as well with the addition of John Lackey. Still, there is not much value in either bet. As Tampa Bay could be a dark horse to win the division, betting “any other” team winning the AL East at +465 looks like a favorable bet, especially because it cashes more than 20% of the time. Though Tampa Bay is a bit of a question mark due to some recent injuries, the depth of its organization should minimize the impact of those players, whereas other teams in pro baseball would hurt much more.
AL Central – While the Minnesota Twins are the odds on favorite to win, thanks to the critical resigning of catcher Joe Mauer, this division is also somewhat up for grabs. The Twins look to be the favorites, but both Detroit and Chicago’s pitching should be the best of the Central division. As this division is murky and fairly unclear, the bet of Cleveland or Detroit winning the AL Central at +205 looks handsome, certainly more so than Chicago or Minnesota winning it at -245. This bet looks equally strong to the AL West bet, previewed in a moment, because if either Cleveland or Detroit wins this a quarter of the time, we are making money.
AL West – Perhaps more than any other division, the AL West looks like a true coin flip. None of the teams in the division have had a particularly impressive spring training, so it is hard to tell exactly who will do well here. The best bet is probably that the Rangers or Athletics will win the division at +120, simply because you are getting half of the teams in the division and positive odds. It would not be too surprising to see any of these four teams win the division, but Texas and Oakland have as good a chance as anybody else, so there may be some value in having 1 to 1 odds on this.
World Series prediction: New York Yankees over Colorado Rockies. In the American League, the Yankees are technically the favorites over the Boston Red Sox, while the National League is a more wide open race. The Rockies have under rated bats, behind shortstop Troy Tulowitzki’s outstanding hitting ability.
If season long props are up your alley, look for the following bets. While it ties up your money for several months, it’s an ideal bet for a low stakes sports bettor who wants to win money but doesn’t have the bank roll to bet on more than a couple of games each day. These bets look ideal.
Seattle Mariners season wins under 83.5 – Even ESPN’s Buster Olney expects the Mariners to finish at the bottom of the AL West. Though this is a fairly wide open division race, the only team that doesn’t have much of a shot are the Mariners. The Angels, Athletics and Rangers will give Seattle plenty of losses throughout the season, not to mention the rest of their schedule is hardly a cake walk.
Colorado Rockies season wins over 84.5 – The Rockies are a dark horse to make a splash in the National League pennant race, and they will need to win some games to do it. As the NL West is a crap shoot, the Rockies should be able to pick up some easy wins against the Giants and Padres.
Chicago Cubs season wins over 83.5 – The Cubs have an easy first part of their schedule, and should get out to a healthy head start because of it. Though bettors may be worrying about this later in the season, it would be surprising if the Cubs didn’t have 45 wins by the All Star Break.
Baltimore Orioles season wins under 73.5 – Simply put, playing in the American League East will not offer the Orioles many opportunities to win. A handful of games against the Yankees, Red Sox and the Rays means that the Orioles’ only opportunity to get out of the AL basement is against the Blue Jays, who are on the up right now.
Arizona Diamondbacks season wins over 82.5 – As explained earlier, the Diamondbacks have a lot of talent on their roster. Their ability to win games over the course of the season is to be determined, but playing in the NL West gives them ample opportunity to rack up wins if and when they are playing well.
