Baseball Season 2009

Wonder how many “experts” looked inside their crystal ball and saw what was coming a year ago? The answer, of course, is not many at all. The Tampa Bay Rays busted out of their AL East basement dwelling to shock the baseball world with a 97-65 regular season record and then a thrilling trip to their first championship since 1980 (and only the second in this franchise’s star-crossed history).

So, what stunners will the Baseball 2009 season bring us – or are we headed back to “yesteryear” with the New York Yankees the likely front and center favorites to win it all after their spend a buck ways this past off season?

As most MLB teams “tightened their belts” this past off-season, the Yankees threw money around like your rich uncle and anything less than a trip back to the World Series would be a major disappointment for the pinstripe gang.

You know the deal: Even before the first pitch of the 2009 season has been thrown, there are some 12 to 15 big league teams with no real shot at getting to this year’s post season. You know who they are and so expect the usual suspects to be making all the noise on the diamonds this summer/fall.

Now, here’s an overall look at American and National Leagues:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Go ahead and say it: The Rays are the defending champs and the team to beat this year in the junior circuit even if the team’s payroll is just “tip change” compared to the likes of the aforementioned Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.

No doubt there are folks that believe Tampa Bay’s position players – and the bullpen too – enjoyed so-called “career years” in 2008 but consider that now Joe Maddon’s team will start the 2009 season with ultra talented LHP David Price in this ultra deep pitching rotation that also includes aces to be RHPs Matt Garza and James Shields. Meanwhile, outfielders Carl Crawford (hurt for segments of the 2008 campaign) and B.J. Upton (disciplined a couple of times last year) will be better than ever and there is no denying the fact the Rays’ team defense is amongst the best in baseball even if T-Bay didn’t always play with gold gloves in that World Series loss to the Phils.

Meanwhile, the Yankees and Red Sox took different paths to get to this 2009 season with New York throwing loads of greenbacks at free agent hurlers CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, along with a truckload of cash at 1B Mark Teixeira. Still, the fact of the matter is the Yankees have not been to the World Series since 2003 and 3B Alex Rodriguez was a major bust with men on base last year (to say nothing of all the double plays he hit into!). If the Bombers are going to make a splash one year after winning 89 games, then catcher Jorge Posada must stay healthy and drive in 100 plus runs and role players such as newly acquired 1B/DH Nick Swisher (who still could be trade bait) and CF Brett Gardner – who could end up playing 120-plus games – must make offensive contributions with their bats and/or their legs.

The Bosox added ancient RHP John Smoltz and oft injured righty Brad Penny this past off season but otherwise stayed the course of letting youth prevail but what happens in Beantown should DH David Ortiz miss a chunk of games again this year?

Maybe 1B/3B Kevin Youkilis remains one of the sport’s best on base percentage guys and a true clutch hitter to boot and 2B Dustin Pedroia does come off winning the league’s MVP award, but the Sox did struggle for runs at times last season in the post Manny Ramirez days and there is no certainty that the likes of 3B Mike Lowell and/or LF Jason Bay will knock in all the big runs.

In the AL Central, the smart betting money is on the Detroit Tigers making a comeback from last season’s flat showing. There still could be chemistry issues with this team – are you surprised by that? – and there is no guarantee that this bullpen will ever be what it was back in Detroit’s AL Championship season of 2006. If the LHP Dontrelle Willis can give Jim Leyland’s team 16 or more wins and 200 or so innings, then the magic could be back in the Motor City.

Still, look for the always feisty Minnesota Twins and the defending AL Central champ Chicago White Sox to be in the hunt all year long with playoff berths. You might want to give Minny the slight edge here if LHP Francisco Liriano can give Ron Gardenhire’s club some innings while the Pale Hose believe the trio Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd can supply the South Siders somewhere between 50 to 60 wins.

Let’s face it: The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (a 100 win team in 2008) basically won the AL West by default last year as Seattle imploded right from the very start and both Texas and Oakland needed long range lenses just to spot the Halos up ahead. Don’t necessarily expect Mike Scioscia’s club to have a cakewalk this year, as the loss of Teixeira left a gaping hole in the lineup and RF / DH Vladimir Guerrero isn’t getting any younger.

Maybe the Angels knew what they were doing by cutting bait with closer Francisco Rodriguez (more about him shortly in our National League preview) but there is certainly no guarantee either that the hard-throwing Jose Arredondo can be an instant success as the 2009 (and beyond) closer. Free-agent signee Brian Fuentes (via Colorado) can do the job in one-run games in the ninth inning.

The Mariners believe they can enjoy a bounce back year providing RHP Felix Hernandez and LHP Erik Bedard can stay healthy and make 30 more starts apiece, while he Rangers are banking on yet another monster year from OF Josh Hamilton (32 HR and 130 RBI) and more contributions from their infield that now shifts Michael Young to third base. As far as the A’s go, we’ll see if the trade that imported LF Matt Holliday from Colorado can help close the gap on the rest of the pack one year after Oakland won just 75 games.

THE 2009 FORECAST:

Expect the AL East to send two teams to the post season (as usual) but this time it’s the Red Sox who get left out in the cold as the Yankees and Rays run neck and neck all year long, while the Twins and Angels cop the other two divisional crowns. Keep an eye on one team that may have designs on being “this year’s Tampa Bay” as the Kansas City Royals have stepped it up on the mound and at the plate as they rallied late last year for a 75-win season….do we hear 85 to 90 wins this time?

THE AL CHAMPION:

Year One in the new Yankee Stadium means a return trip to the Fall Classic for the Bronx Bombers.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Okay, so what can the Phillies do now for an encore?

Last year’s World Series champs hope they accomplished a little “addition by subtraction” by letting of unpopular LF Pat Burrell walk via free agency (he’s another bat in the middle of that Tampa Bay lineup) but immediately this lineup that features SS Jimmy Rollins, 2B Chase Utley and thumper 1B Ryan Howard added former Seattle Mariners OF Raul Ibanez to the batting order – not a bad pickup at all.

Still, whether or not the Phils make it back to October baseball likely depend on LHP Cole Hamels – armed with a new multi-million and multi year pact – and whether or not one of the up and comers from the farm system can shine with lefty J.A Happ. Perhaps a major key to this rotation that shouldn’t necessarily count on a big year from 46 year old Jamie Moyer.

Manager Charlie Manuel’s bench played a key role in winning the playoff series against Milwaukee and the Los Angeles Dodgers last year – or did you already forget that late game pinch hit blast by Matt Stairs against LA? – and it looks like Philly’s reserves are a major positive again in 2009.

If Philly is indeed the team to beat in the NL East, then the New York Mets are right on the Phil’s collective tails. Okay, so the Mets have short-circuited late in the season 2 years in a row now, but GM Omar Minaya addressed the rotten bullpen with a 1-2 punch that stunned lots of folks at the winter meetings. The Mets inked “K-Rod” and acquired one-timer Mariners closer J.J Putz in a multi-player deal. He’ll serve as Rodriguez’s eighth-inning setup man – can’t you see LHP Johan Santana breathing a sigh of relief?

Meanwhile, the Braves said bye-bye to lifer Smoltz and hello to free agent RHP Kevin Lowe who figures to thrive at Turner Field, but the remainder of this starting rotation is littered with major question marks with RHP Tim Hudson not expected back till mid-season at the earliest.

And don’t sleep on the Florida Marlins who last year won 84 games (keep in mind their Las Vegas over/under season price was just 68 ½ wins) and have a legit MVP-type in their lineup with SS Hanley Ramirez ready to take the next step in all the key stat categories. Ramirez’s numbers will be even better if OF Cameron Maybin gets 500 – plus at bats this season.

In the NL Central, the Chicago Cubs will be the odds on favorite to win this division, but just how much will that mean in October?

Last season’s playoff meltdown against the Dodgers featured more post-season whiffs by LF Alfonso Soriano and lots of rotten in the clutch moments from the likes of 1B Derrek Lee and 3B Aramis Ramirez. Who’s to say that RHP Ryan Dempster and / or LHP Ted Lilly can repeat last year’s stellar showings (see 17 wins apiece)?

If Cubs OF Milton Bradley – who inked a three year, 30 million deal this past winter - can deliver the big hit, drive in 100 plus runs and stays out of trouble (sure!) then Lou Piniella’s Cubbies might just march off to another 95 plus win year (see 97 wins in 2008). But this team is capable of imploding big-time with high wire acts Bradley and RHP Carlos Zambrano (among others) on board.

Don’t look now Cubbies, but the rest of the NL Central is gaining on you with both the St. Louis Cardinals – starring 2007 NL Most Valuable Player Albert Pujols – and the Milwaukee Brewers (fresh off their wild card berth) real hot to trot teams even with Milwaukee now minus the aforementioned Sabathia and righty Ben Sheets too.

There’s some very good young pitching on Milwaukee (see RHP Yovani Gallardo) and that lineup will raise major havoc with LF Ryan Braun a strong MVP candidate this season. The Redbirds are keeping fingers crossed that they can get a full year from starters such as RHP Adam Wainwright who threw just 132 innings last year and still won 11 games.

In the NL West, it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers who are the defending champs – but it does seem to change every year, right? – but Joe Torre’s second year in Hollywood could be a greater challenge than Year One as 2007 starters RHPs Penny and Lowe are Boston bound and righty Chad Billingsley is coming off an off-season broken leg when he slipped on ice back East. If newly resigned SS Rafael Furcal can stay in one piece for the better part of 162 games, then he’s liable to score 124 or so runs as long as the Dodgers are able to bring back LF Manny Ramirez who had yet to be signed by mid to late January.

He Arizona Diamondbacks appeared to be the class of the NL West for much of last season but Bob Melvin’s club faded even though that one-two punch of RHPs Brandon Webb (22-7, 3.30 ERA) and Dan Haren (16-8, 3.33 ERA) had splendid seasons both. If ‘Zona wants to get back into the playoff mix, then still young 3B Mark Reynolds (28 home runs) better cut down on his strikeout totals. You can’t have a 200-K guy un the middle of the order when you’re usually operating a small ball attack.

Former D-Back hurler Randy Johnson takes his 40-something year old body/arm to San Francisco this year in hopes of reviving that lost franchise and Giants fans are allowed to daydream big things from a rotation that now includes Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, RHP Matt Cain, one time Cy Young winners Barry Zito and the aforementioned Johnson. If LHP Noah Lowry rebounds from a season-long injury, then maybe SF can be this year’s rags to riches story of the NL West.

THE 2009 FORECAST:

You could make the argument that defending champ Phillies are even better this year with Utley/Howard just entering their prime years but Philadelphia should not necessarily count on late-season collapse this year by the Mets who fortified their pen and should win most times with late inning leads. Put both the Phillies and Mets into this year’s post season mix and expect the Cubs and Diamondbacks there too. If you happen to be looking for an NL sleeper squad, then consider the Reds who last year won 74 games but now have a right to believe RHP Aaron Harang (6-17, 4.78 ERA in 2008) will be back with a vengeance and could combine with fellow righties Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez in giving Cincy 70-plus wins themselves.

THE NL CHAMPION:

Sorry Cubs fans, but your century pluz drought will continue since Arizona is the pick to get to this year’s World Series, as the Webb/Haren tandem shines brightly all year long

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