How to handicap bad weather games
Here are a couple of phrases I grabbed from a wire service report:
"A mud-caked slog through an unfriendly pitch."
"A steady rain that made offense nearly impossible."
Those are accurate descriptions. But, I cheated. Those are actually from a game played a few weeks earlier featuring the Miami Dolphins and the NY Giants at Wembley Stadium in England. Most people DIDN'T see that game on TV It was the same situation. The teams had big trouble moving the ball to sustain scoring drives.
- The final score was 13 -10
- Miami didn't score its TD until the last two minutes of the game
- Eli Manning was 8-22 passing for 59 yards
- New York had 238 total yards, Miami 254
It was basically a dress rehearsal for what Miami and Pittsburgh would endure a month later. Except, the sod in Pittsburgh was probably in worse shape. It had just been laid down, so there was no root structure to provide stability for anyone trying to run. Because of heavy rains late in the day, the encounter started as a "mud-caked slog" and got progressively worse.
- The final score was 3-0
- Pittsburgh didn't score until the last 13 seconds of the game - Both quarterbacks stuck to short throws that didn't go anywhere
- Miami had 159 yards, Pittsburgh had 216
What's amazing about Miami/ Pittsburgh is that sports bettors were lining up just before kickoff to bet the OVER. News of the weather had spread. ESPN had a lengthy pre-game coverage that showcased the horrible conditions. That coverage had driven the Las Vegas and offshore totals down a few points. Suddenly, respected nfl betting players were chiming in on internet forums that the line had moved too much. The "public" was overreacting to the weather news. The over had become a steal because the stupid public was making a huge mistake. Had these over players completely forgotten about that Dolphins/Giants game?
Well, many sharps had to call it a night early because it was clear from the outset, that neither team was going to move the ball. Anyone betting Under ANYTHING had made the right move. Miami and the Giants combined for just 23 points in similar conditions, and that was with a garbage time touchdown. Conditions looked to be WORSE in Pittsburgh because of the loose sod and intensity of the rain. Yet some veteran football bettors believed over 38 had become nearly a sure thing. The game didn't make it Over 3.5!
A few weeks later, we saw the first blizzard game of the year. Buffalo visited Cleveland. Here's a blurb from the wire service coverage:
"With wind gusts up to 40 mph and visibility limited, throwing the ball was nearly impossible and both teams had to rely on their running games to move the ball. But even that was tough as players struggled to get traction on the slippery, snow-covered surface."
The weather had been bad all morning. The forecast had been bad for awhile. The closing total was 36.5, having come down several points from its opener early in the week. There were people betting Over Sunday morning because they thought the line had moved too much.
Cleveland won 8-0.
I know, some of you are thinking that it doesn't always happen this way. Often bad weather helps scoring because defenders fall down... or because the increase in turnovers leads to more cheap points. That does happen. It's not the norm though. Particularly when certain conditions are in play.
Even if you hadn't charted bad weather games for the last 30 years. Even if you hadn't profited personally by betting these edges yourself you could still "deduce" the impact of weather from the line moves.
The three-day forecasts start coming out late Thursday and early Friday. Totals will start coming down just on the forecast of bad weather. The public doesn't follow the weather forecasts that closely. The public doesn't bet that early. Who's moving the line?
Professional football betting experts who have learned about the dramatic impact of weather, that's who. Many are taking positions just in case the weather is even worse than expected. They're savvy enough to buy off their positions if the weather turns out to be okay. If the weather does turn out to be bad, the public will get involved on game day. That may cause the line to come down even further. It's true that a public bandwagon effect occurs with those games. Pro bettors got in at ideal numbers. They found a way to get the best of it because of their knowledge of how weather affects football.
Here are the three keys you need to evaluate when determining if weather will be a factor, in order of importance:
- Wind
- Quality of turf
- Precipitation
I could throw in "temperature," but that's really only an issue in EXTREME cold. And, quality NFL teams can even score points in extreme cold as long as it's not windy, not snowy, and they've got traction.
Those are the big three. I think the misconception about scoring has come because people focus too much on rain. They've heard a forecast for rain, bet the Under, then watched a high scoring game because offenses were either making big plays in the air or turning the ball over to set up cheap points. There wasn't much wind. Traction was manageable. An incorrectly characterized "bad weather" ' game flies Over, and gamblers start to think "bad weather" 'doesn't hurt scoring.
-Clear sunny conditions but HIGH WINDS hurt scoring.
-Clear sunny conditions but SWIRLING WINDS hurt scoring.
-Clear sunny conditions, no winds, but TEAR-AWAY SOD hurts scoring.
-Rain (or snow), wind, and bad turf ABSOLUTELY KILL scoring. - Rain without wind, on artificial turf or a quality grass field, won't hurt scoring.
Stop thinking about rain by itself as a bad weather indicator. Look at the mix of wind, turf quality, and precipitation. It's the mix that matters, not one third of the mix.
The fact that you watched Hawaii and San Jose State play a high scoring game in a mid-October California drizzle doesn't mean that the Dolphins and Steelers are going to play a high scoring game in a late November Pennsylvania mud bath!
We probably won't see really bad scoring conditions anywhere until the second half of the 2009 season. But, high winds can crop up at any time. Be sure you're reading the weather forecasts every week so you can make a proper assessment of how conditions may affect play on the field.
