NCAA and College Basketball Betting
As I have written numerous times in the past, line shopping is one of the most important parts of sports betting, and one of the biggest advantages to betting sports online in general. It is critical in the long term to have money in several different books, simply because all books offer different lines regularly. Even if the line is the same at two books, one may offer a reduced line because money is coming in differently at both sites.
One popular bet is college basketball futures, or, who will win the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Not surprisingly, the top three teams in the USA Today and ESPN rankings are also the top three teams that Vegas has deemed most likely to win the National Championship.
The same philosophy for betting on pro football can be applied to college basketball futures. Before the Super Bowl kicked off, various sports books offered both different lines – from Indianapolis -4 to Indianapolis -5.5 – as well as odds – from -120 to +105. To maximize your earning potential, it was just a matter of booking your bet at the site with the best odds at that moment.
Kansas comes in as the favorite across the board, ranging from +180 to +275, depending on what website you use. Next on all three books is Kentucky, ranging from +385 to +400, and third is Syracuse ranging from +400 to +700.
As you can see, there is value on shopping around, even if you are only betting $100 on the tournament. While $100 on Syracuse nets you $400 in profit if they win on Site A, it nets you $700 in profit if they win on Site B.
All of that is a waste if you are betting on teams that, through more than half of the season, look like lame ducks. Almost every team in the Pac 10 has double digit losses and would have to win the Conference Tournament just to make a post season appearance. Meanwhile, the Big 12 has four teams ranked in the Top 25, but likely only two teams able to make a deep run in post season play – Kansas and Texas.
Two teams that may be playing some of the best basketball in the country are located in the ACC, Duke and Maryland. Duke is +2000 at Sportsbook while Maryland varies greatly from site to site. At Sportsbook, Maryland is +5000, but on 5Dimes, the Terrapins are +12500. A simple $10 bet would net $1,250 if Maryland were to win the National Championship.
Betting on Ohio State right now would be poor timing, as the Buckeyes’ hot streak has Vegas watching. Just a month ago, Ohio State was +12500 at books, and +9000 in Las Vegas. Now, Ohio State is +3000 at 5Dimes and just +2000 at Sportsbook and The Greek.
Georgetown has played impressive basketball recently, yet still seems to be flying under the radar at +2800 on 5Dimes. Meanwhile, Purdue, one of the nation’s last teams to stay undefeated, is +2200 on 5Dimes.
Despite the perceived “lack of value” on the teams at the top of the polls, Kansas and Kentucky appear to be the two most consistent teams in the country. Betting the Jayhawks at +275 and the Wildcats at +400 would still net you $75 if either team won, at $100 wagered on each team.
In the end, exercise caution, as it is easy to get carried away and bet on several teams, nearly guaranteeing yourself a loss in money. If you bet on 10 teams to win it all, you had better hope that the long shots come through, as you will be losing money otherwise.
