A wise man on a site I frequently visit for research released his Top 20 ATS teams, or teams that he thinks will win you more money than they lose you if you play them every week.
A wise man on a site I frequently visit for research released his Top 20 ATS teams, or teams that he thinks will win you more money than they lose you if you play them every week.
The keys to examining a team's chances against the spread are to take a look at returning starters on both sides of the ball, see if there's a new coach and, of course, see how they performed ATS last season.
If a team returns most of its starters but performed poorly (straight up and/or ATS) last year, there will probably be an increased performance this year.
On the flip side, if a team blew out teams left and right and covered most of its games, that team will have bigger spreads to cover, providing they return the majority of their starters.
Look at Florida, for example. The Gators finished 13-1 last season, and 11-2 ATS. They open the season with a game against Charleston Southern, for which Vegas probably won't post a line. Then they play Troy at home, and instead of a normal 30-point spread, they will probably have to cover 43 or so. It'll be tough for Florida to continue to perform well against the spread as Vegas continues to compensate for those factors.
Without further ado, this is a Top 10 list of some teams who are likely to beat the spread more often than not. Next to their name is their Week 1 opponent and the line for the game.
1. LSU -16 @ Washington
2. Kansas OFF vs. Northern Colorado
3. Stanford -15 @ Washington State
4. Air Force OFF vs. Nicholls State
5. North Carolina OFF vs. Citadel
6. Notre Dame -13.5 vs. Nevada
7. Georgia +5.5 @ Oklahoma State
8. Louisiana Tech +13 @ Auburn
9. Michigan -12 vs. Western Michigan
10. Nebraska -21 vs. Florida Atlantic
