Making money in March madness
Conference tournaments are a great time to make some money by betting on the outcome of March Madness. It can be a profitable week and a half as some teams are fighting for their lives on the bubble, other teams are trying to stay atop a one bid conference, and others are vying for an opportunity to cut down the nets before Selection Sunday.
The big six conferences – ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC – are historically the biggest multi seed leagues, although the Pac 10 is having a serious down year and the Atlantic 10 appears to be a potential five or six bid league. Before leagues kick off their conference tournaments, though, there is an opportunity to bet on who will win the whole thing, as well as who will win individual games. A team with its back up against the wall, playing for its life – like Georgia winning the SEC Tournament in 2008 and earning a 14 seed despite a losing record heading into postseason play – can be profitable for sports bettors.
Of course, obscure tournaments are still going on, and real thrill seekers can get their fix by betting on the Big Sky Conference, the Atlantic Sun Conference, or even the Summit Conference. But that can get dangerous, as many small Division 1 teams aren’t listed on sports books as often as the more big time teams.
The ACC Tournament runs from March 11 to March 14, and at -175, Duke appears the best bet to win it all. Maryland is listed at +300 but has been playing above its head for the last month. Florida State and Virginia Tech are listed as the next most likely teams to win it all at +650 and +800, respectively. One interesting option is Clemson at +1200, as the Tigers would have to beat No. 11 North Carolina State, No. 3 Florida State and No. 2 Maryland or No. 7 Georgia Tech or No. 10 North Carolina to find itself in the ACC Finals. Maryland is listed as the second most likely team to win it all at 15.2% by Basketball Prospectus, while Duke is the overwhelming favorite at 63.2%. At -175, the Blue Devils would have to win 63.6% of the time – almost even odds, a rarity for Las Vegas.
The Big Ten Conference is a more even split, as Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin are all listed at +200 to win it all. No. 1 Ohio State seems like a safe bet, as they are the top seed and will have the easiest path to the championship. The Buckeyes will play the winner of the No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 9 Iowa game, and beat both teams during the regular season. The best team Ohio State will have to play before the Big Ten Championship is either No. 4 Wisconsin or No. 5 Illinois, who the Buckeyes beat 3-1 during the regular season, even without National Player of the Year candidate Evan Turner for six games. Basketball Prospectus lists Wisconsin as the favorite to win it all at 34.1% of the time, with Purdue (26.1%) and Ohio State (24.5%) trailing, which would make Purdue an excellent value at +650. However, this is a much different team without Robbie Hummel, and I’m not buying Purdue as a legitimate title contender without him just yet.
The Big 12 Conference is heavily slanted in Kansas’ favor at -300, with Kansas State the second most favorited team at +350. Kansas appears to be the best bet, even with the juice you would have to lay. One team that has a legitimate chance to get to the championship game is Baylor, at +500. The No. 3 seed Bears will play the winner of No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Iowa State, and then either No. 2 seed Kansas State or No. 7 Oklahoma State or No. 10 Oklahoma. Still, avoiding the Jayhawks until the final game is the key, and Baylor has a chance to find themselves in the finals because of that. Basketball Prospectus lists Kansas versus Kansas State as the most likely match up, with Kansas winning 65.3% of the time. Though -300 would mean that Kansas would need to win 75% of the time to break even, that is still the most likely scenario. Basketball Prospectus also lists Baylor as 8.2% to win the finals, and while that means that +500 is not giving a lot of value, it still shows them as a fairly realistic contender.
The Pac 10 Tournament may be one of the more interesting ones to watch, though California is the odds on favorite at +135. Next are Washington at +250 and Arizona State at +360, but neither look particularly likely to walk away with the championship. No other team appears to have more than a 10% chance of winning the whole thing, but Stanford at +2500 is slightly interesting. Oregon State, Washington State and Oregon could combine for a team that still would not be likely to reach the finals, though. As this league has been topsy turvy and unpredictable throughout the entire season, it would be best to stay away from this tournament. California has been playing better of late, and is darn near the only reliable team in the conference, but it would not be a surprise to see the Golden Bears fizzle out early. Basketball Prospectus has Cal winning 47.1% of the time but being in the finals 74% of the time, a pretty fair value at +135. Next, Washington and Arizona State are the next likeliest champions, at 24% and 20.5% to win it all.
The SEC Tournament could be particularly profitable if any team other than Kentucky (-125) is able to win it all. Teams on the other side of the bracket are Vanderbilt at +325, Mississippi State at +1300 and Florida at +1200. Mississippi State appears to be a fairly good value, despite being a bubble team. A first round bye followed by a second round match up against either Florida or Auburn could make for a somewhat easy route to the SEC semi finals. Basketball Prospectus lists Vanderbilt as the second most likely team to win the SEC Tournament at 26.8%, just behind Kentucky at 40.8%. Mississippi State is potentially the best value, according to Basketball Prospectus, as the Bulldogs are 7.3% to win the tournament – meaning their odds should be more like +1400, though +1300 is still fairly good odds, especially with Las Vegas skimming a bit of value off the top.
In the end, it is important to bet on teams that have a chance of making it far in the tournaments, if you are going to bet on futures. Another viable option is betting on a team’s money line each game and rolling over the profits plus the original bet each round. In the end, you will come out with nearly the same amount of money as you had if you had simply bet on them to win it all in the first place, but you can lay off if you think that a team will lose in the semi finals or finals of their conference tournament.
It is also important to take a look at some of the teams that end up playing three or four games in as many days. For the ACC Tournament champions, that team will have tired legs come their first round match ups and may end up exiting the NCAA Tournament early because of it.
