March Madness |
There is a great deal of fan love and sentiment attached to every NCAA Basketball Tournament and that's nice, if you are not a bettor or an individual who puts up money to play in then of thousands of office pools. It's nice to believe there is another George Mason out there, or that a Cinderella team from among the mid majors has a chance to get the Final Four and even win it all.
But simply it’s not going to happen.
The last time a team came from the outback to win the NCAA tournament was in 1966 when Texas-Western (now Texas-El Paso) took Adolph Rubb and his heavily favored Kentucky Wildcats to the woodshed by a 72-65 score. Since then three teams from the mid-majors – George Mason in 2006, Indiana State and Larry Bird in 1979 and New Mexico State in 1970 have even made it to the Final Four.
The NCAA Tournament is a world unto itself and it belongs completely and absolutely to the big boys – the traditional dominating power teams from the major conferences. There are 443 teams playing NCAA 1-A basketball but less than 20, or a mere 5%, have any chance at all to take home a championship.
Don’t want to hear it? Sorry, but that is the truth.
If your name is North Carolina, Michigan State, Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, etc, you probably can pencil yourself into the Sweet Sixteen round. If you are Portland State, Siena, Niagara or Western Kentucky you may end up as one of the 65 teams going to the post season and history says you will be one-and-done.
The first factor that makes the NCAA Tournament dramatically different than the regular season is that there are no second chances. Win and you stay; lose and go home. The pressure is enormous and does not subside until it’s over. Very few teams are built to stand the heat, blink early and give it up.
That wouldn’t work when you are playing war horses such as North Carolina, Connecticut and Michigan State. They’ve been there, done that, and believe they can do it again. They have the talent, depth and coaching to keep right on playing, regardless of how difficult their last tournament game might have been.
Before getting into the point-by-point formula for handicapping the NCAA, whether it is for trying to beat the point spread or simply to advance through your brackets, I believe at this writing the following teams are the best 16 in the land in the round of Sweet Sixteen.
- Wake Forest – Has buried the best teams in the country.
- North Carolina – Has 5 starters from last year’s Final Four team.
- Duke – Many insiders said before the season started that Duke was the best in the ACC
- Connecticut – A team with absolutely no weaknesses.
- Louisville – Started slow but finally got it right.
- Oklahoma – Has the single best player in the country.
- Arizona State – Much better than its record.
- Marquette – is at the top of its game at the right time.
- Kentucky – Explosive and has the talent to win it all.
- Pittsburgh – Panthers are the complete package.
- Michigan State – Has improved with every single game.
- Butler – So this is what a rebuilding year is like.
- Syracuse – Some question marks but very talented.
- Saint Mary’s-Cal – Has played a weak schedule but is loaded.
- Purdue – Ha the talent and experience to go the distance.
- Clemson – If the Tigers remain focused, watch out.
While I have listed 16 teams here, it is important to note that my handicapping figures say only the top 11 teams have everything it takes to win this year’s NCAA championship. If I were a Bookmaker I would offer them all to the betting public at 5-1; that’s simply how close they are in their power figures.
For the record, the only real questions I have about teams listed 12-16, is their ability to remain focused enough to keep winning. They have the talent to advance but no proven ability to handle the heat.
LOOKING FOR EDGE THAT MEAN WINNERS
It is important to remember that it is one thing to be a bettor who is trying to beat a point spread and quite another to be an individual who just wants to see his or her teams win out-right and advance to another game. But, with this said, the edges for both groups are basically the same.
THE 10 MOST IMPORTANT THINGS WHEN HANDICAPPING THE NCCA TOURNAMENT.
- Look for a team that has a strong winning record on the road.
Almost any of the 443 teams playing at Division 1 level can beat almost any of the 442 in a given night when playing at home. It is only the good teams that win on the road. - Team must run by a proven point guard
Bettors usually base many of their football selections on the ability of the quarterback but seldom realize the point guard is to a basketball team what the signal caller is to a football team. You need a top point guard to win the big games. - A team that is coached by a seasoned veteran, who is smart enough to make adjustments from the sidelines during a game, if what he was trying is not working
Also a coach to be someone who has been there, done that and has a proven record of winning close games. - An experienced team that has a starting five that has played together for most of the season.
In the past most would say the team should be senior dominated but that is a thing of the past, since kids coming right out of high school step right in and take over. There is no greater example of this than Wake Forest, which starts a freshman, 2 sophomores and 2 juniors. If a team’s starters have played together all season, and have been successful, that’s enough experience for me – regardless of the number of upper classmen. - If you are bracket player and unconcerned about covering a betting line, stick with name teams conferences.
If you are a bettor and need to cover the number, study a little harder but know the big boys of the game always have an edge. For example the class level between teams from the Big East or ACC is so dramatic that they will always have an edge over teams from the WAC or the MAC. - As a bettor you will always give an edge to a team that had an easy time winning its previous tournament game, if it is playing a team that was flat all-out to win its last game.
Teams have only so much energy and a team coming out of a physically and mentally demanding game simply can not be at its best. It might win, but it might not cover. The question is simply this: can a team that is going to have its tank half full be good enough to beat a team that has a full tank of gas? - Give an edge to a team with a game breaking player.
Some college basketball teams have a solid starting five, but no standout players, while others have a solid starting five that includes a guy that has proved to be all but unstoppable all season. The team with a game breaker has a definite edge. - Defense is extremely important and should never let one down, regardless of the venue in which a game is being played. Teams that play good defense always have an edge.
- As the tournament progresses, depth will become extremely important.
There is little time for rest and players get tired and need more rest. A solid bench that can offer quality relief is an enormous edge. - As the tournament progresses, you should begin to use teams that have played at this level for years and are coached by men who know how to keep going, regardless of how tough each game is.
UCLA, which has been to four straight Final Fours, would be an example of this.
BET EVERY SINGLE NCAA GAME AS LATE AS POSSIBLE
As most experienced handicappers know, college injury reports leave much to be desired. They are at best dishonest and at worst shameless lies.
The one thing you want to know before you bet your money is whether you are going to get in this game what you got in the last game. There is no worse feeling than to bet a game and find out five minutes before tipoff, that the team’s leading scorer is out with a sprained back – and this is a situation that shows itself several times during every tournament.
You can get the starting line up of every game about 15 minutes before the game goes from the basketball website at most schools.
