Monday Night Football Betting
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Probably the most well known handicapping angle is the “Monday Night Home Underdog.”
People were winning with it back when Howard Cosell and Don Meredith were in the ABC announcing booth. People are still talking about it now, while having to sit through Tony Kornheiser interviewing Christian Slater about a movie nobody wants to see.
Is there still value with this old time Monday night football betting angle? Or, have the sports books finally caught up?
It's dangerous to draw conclusions from small sample sizes. There are only a few instances a season where we even have a Monday Night host getting points on the Las Vegas line. Ten years of that isn't enough to draw conclusions. Some would argue that 30 years isn't enough. Early success of the angle may have been short term variance. Recent failures may just be the laws of math working themselves out.
Why the angle is supposed to work:
- Home Underdogs get sky high emotionally because they can make headlines on national TV.
- Home crowds are as rowdy as they can get, distracting the opponents and inspiring the home team.
- Road teams come in overconfident because they've been video taping interviews all week talking about how great they are.
Why the angle is supposed to NOT work any more:
- Oddsmakers adjusted long ago, taking away any edge that might have existed at one time.
- Road teams know about the tendency now, and are on extra guard to avoid having a flat performance.
- There's a bigger difference than there used to be between the best and worst teams because there aren't enough good quarterbacks to go around. Asking a bad quarterback to beat a good quarterback is rarely a good idea.
Which thought process is correct? On field results from last season are pointing to the latter. In 2007, Monday Night road favorites absolutely CRUSHED their opponents on the field most of the time. Dominated them. Beat them like a drum.
Let's review...
October 1st:
New England (-7.5) beat Cincinnati 34-13. New England wins total yardage 404-283 (+121 yard)
We were a few weeks into the NFL season at this point, and many were still skeptical that the New England Patriots were as good as their scoreboard results.
Cincinnati was a popular Monday Night Home Underdog play, with many prominent pundits calling for an outright upset. Didn't happen. Never had a chance of happening.
October 8th:
Dallas (-11) beat Buffalo 25-24
Dallas wins total yardage 384¬229 (+156 yards)
You probably remember this game. This is where talk of the "magical pixie dust" that favors Monday Night Home Underdogs got some more traction.
Dallas dominated Buffalo by even more than New England did Cincinnati. But, Tony Romo couldn't remember which uniforms to throw to. Dallas lost the turnover category 6-1. Buffalo didn't have an offensive TD all night but still almost won the game. "This is how the home dogs do it" people were saying. They get lucky points because the road favorites can't handle the Monday Night pressure on the road.
October 15th:
NY Giants (-4.5) beat Atlanta 31-10
NY Giants win total yardage 491-284 (+207 yards)
Emboldened by the Bills easy cover the prior week, home dog players loaded up on the Atlanta Falcons "It doesn't matter how bad they are, they're a Monday Night Home Underdog!" they were saying. Well, it did matter how bad they were. The Giants gained almost 500 yards, and easily covered a 4.5-point line that seemed insane from the second quarter on. For the third straight week, a Monday Night Road Favorite won stats huge. Home Dog players had that near upset with Buffalo, but were 1-2 with their bets.
October 22nd:
Indianapolis (-3) beat Jacksonville 29-7
Indianapolis wins total yardage 384-226 (+158 yards)
Make it four for four in four straight weeks on the calendar in terms of the yardage stats. The superior teams were establishing that superiority very easily in terms of moving the ball up and down the field. Dallas had a turnover implosion. The other three didn't. Monday Night Football Home Dogs were 1-3 against the spread.
December 3rd:
New England (49) beat Baltimore 27-24
New England loses total yardage 376-326 (-50 yards)
This was the other Monday Night Home Underdog cover of the season. You could make a pretty good case that this fit the traditional bill. The home dog really did rise up and play one of its best games of the season. The road favorite came in overconfident and lacking fire.
New England was lucky to win.
December 10th:
New Orleans (-4) beat Atlanta 34-14
New Orleans wins total yardage 473-323 (+150 yards)
This was the final example of the season. We're back to seeing road favorites post huge statistical edges ... and we see Atlanta's defense allow almost 500 yards again. MNF Home Dogs end the season 2-4 against the spread.
Hey, it's only six games. What can you conclude from six games?
- Well, you can at least see that there isn't much evidence for "special intensity" from the home teams. It can happen. It does happen. Will it happen better than 52% of the time? That's what you have to determine as an nfl betting handicapper.
"It doesn't matter how bad they are, they're a Monday Night Home Underdog!"
Monday Night football betting results were consistent with an overall regular season tendency, showing that having the superior quarterback meant covering the spread in games that matter. Particularly in the first half of the season, there was an extremely strong correlation between quarterback ratings and spread betting success. It slowed down later in the year because the best teams had big leads in the playoff picture, and because the lines eventually caught up to the caliber of play. Nothing about the Monday Night Football Home Dog phenomenon trumped that enough to matter last season.
It's worth considering the possibility that the public's love of betting on Monday Night Football Home Dogs has created value on the other side. Superior teams are cheaper favorites than they should be. Not only have sports betting establishments adjusted in a way that takes away value, they've over-adjusted in a way that offers value on the road favorites. You saw the yardage differentials. Four of the six dogs scored one offensive TD or less. It's not hard for a road favorite to cover if the home dog is scoring one TD or less!
The situation is bound to come up a few times during the 2008 season, obviously. It's hard to know this far in advance exactly who the Monday Night Home Dogs will be. Just be prepared to focus on the proper fundamentals when making your selections. A rabid home crowd isn't enough. A rabid home crowd AND a good quarterback might get you there!
