Betting the money line

In sports betting, whether you are placing wagers on the NBA, NFL or college sports, it is always tempting to forego the point spread altogether and just bet more money on a money line. You won’t have to sweat out a team winning by 15 instead of 14, and as long as they win, you win.

If you bet on big money line favorites all day, you will win more than you will lose. But when you lose, you will lose big. If you put $1,000 on the Denver Broncos to beat the Oakland Raiders at -1000 odds, you need that bet to win 10 out of 11 times, or 91 percent of the time, to break even.

However, if you thought that the Raiders could have a shot at pulling off a minor miracle, even at +750 they would be a decent bet. You would not have to put as much money down – even a third of a unit would net you 2.5 units – because it does not have to happen as often to make you money.

sports books make a lot of money by taking action on both sides of the money line, booking action at +750 and -1000 to ensure a nice profit in the middle. Essentially, if you bet on the Raiders, the sports book would be paying you with the money other bettors lost on the Broncos.

Perhaps in the NFL more so than in any other league, any team can win on any given Sunday. Though the Broncos were favored by 15 points, they were not going to win 91 percent of the time those two teams played. In most NFL games, the favorite is somewhere between 55 and 75 percent likely to win the game.

Unlike college football, the NFL has much more parity. In college football, the difference between No. 1 Florida and No. 120 Western Kentucky could very well be 50 points. And, due to the difference between those teams, it is possible that Florida could win that game 95 to 99 percent of the time.

In the NFL, everyone is a professional athlete. Instead of blow out games, most games come down to 10 points or less. In fact, a large percentage of games are decided by exactly 3 or 7 points. Even better, the more money that people put on the favorite, the bigger the money line will grow for the underdog as well.

This week, take a look at the Chicago Bears. At home on a visitor unfriendly Soldier Field, the Bears are +250 this weekend against the Minnesota Vikings, who are coming off a humbling loss to the Carolina Panthers. While Minnesota is -300 and therefore must win 3 out of 4 times to break even – or 75 percent – the Bears would have to win just 1 out of every 3.5 times, or 29 percent of the time, to break even.

Obviously 75 percent and 29 percent does not add up to a complete 100 percent. The excess is what Las Vegas sports books pocket. But before you place your next big money line bet, think to yourself: will the favorite win often enough for this to be a positive expected value move? Or should I put much less money on the underdog, who may very well have a fighting chance?