Betting on the NFL |
The ongoing negotiations between the NFL owners and the Players Association to arrive at a new CBA (collective bargaining agreement) continue to point towards a resolution that could potentially end a four-month owner imposed lockout of the players and reopen the league for business as early as the end of this week.
Once all the T’s have been crossed and the I’s have been dotted on the new CBA, all 32 teams would mostly likely be given a 72-hour window to try and re-sign its players without a contract before a general free agent signing period would begin. What happens over the next few weeks after free agency begins could have a dramatic impact on the fortunes of several teams this season, especially the ones with existing question marks at the quarterback position.
All this makes handicapping teams that much harder, as the odds makers will be forced quickly access the impact of all this player movement. What this means for the betting public is a tremendous opportunity to make some serious money during the first few weeks of the regular season, while the books try and sort this whole thing out.
Most sportsbooks have opened the New England Patriots as the odd-on-favorite to win the AFC at +300 while the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers get the nod in the NFC at +325.
The Patriots are followed by a list of the usual suspects such as Pittsburgh at +450, San Diego at +600, New York (Jets) and Baltimore at +650 and Indianapolis at +700. The odds really drop off from there, but there is some considerable value in teams such as Houston at +1600 and Kansas City at +1800. Both these ball clubs have some holes to fill on both sides of the ball, but still have an established quarterback and roster filled with playmakers such as WR Andre Johnson and RB Arian Foster for the Texans and RB Jamaal Charles and CB Eric Berry for the Chiefs.
Turning to the NFC, the Packers are followed by Philadelphia and Atlanta at +650, New Orleans at +700, Dallas at +750, and New York (Giants) at +850. The value teams to keep an eye on in this conference are Tampa Bay at +1600 and St. Louis at +2000. The Buccaneers have a tough road to hoe with the Falcons and the Saints ahead of them, but after last season’s 10-6 campaign, it would not take a tremendous amount of improvement to be right in the thick of things this year. St. Louis was one win away from winning the NFC West last season with a 7-9 record and has all the necessary pieces in place to add a few more wins to that total.
The odds to win Super Bowl XLVI have the Packers as the slight favorite to repeat at +650. The last time a team won back-to-back titles was in New England in 2004 and 2005. Speaking of the Patriots, Tom Brady and Co. are the second favorites to add another world title to their resume at +700. The third favorite at +1000 is the Steelers, but you have to question the value in these odds. The last time a team that lost the Super Bowl was able to get back to the title game the following season was way back in 1994 when Buffalo appeared in and lost its fourth straight World Championship Game. The value picks in the Super Bowl odds could be Philadelphia and Baltimore at +1400. These teams have been perennial contenders over the past few seasons and come out of this whole labor dispute with a very stable situation. They have veteran head coaches and rosters that contain few major personnel issues. Both these teams have a great opportunity to hit the ground running once the lockout is lifted to get a major jump on their competition.
