NFL Betting Prediction |
The New England Patriots still need a couple of wins to nail down the top seed in the AFC, but they will have to try getting one of them on the road this Sunday against the Denver Broncos, who have completely forgotten how to lose. Kick-off for this key AFC clash is set for 4:15 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on CBS.
New England is well on its way to clinching the AFC East and in position to still clinch the top seed in the AFC at 10-3 straight-up (7-6 against the spread), but the cracks in the foundation of its defense are starting to widen.
First, it let 0-13 Indianapolis hang around in a 31-24 victory as a prohibitive 20.5-point home favorite and then last Sunday it gave-up 27 points to Washington in a seven-point win as a 7.5-point road favorite. The total went ‘over’ in both of these games and has now gone ‘over’ in eight of its 15 games.
Denver’s defense, on the other hand, is one of the primary reasons the team is now 8-5 SU (7-6 ATS) and one game ahead of Oakland for the lead in the AFC West. The total has gone 7-6 in its 13 games.
The other reason for the Broncos’ turnaround after a 1-4 start has been the inspirational play of quarterback Tim Tebow. You can say all you want about his mechanics and notorious slow starts, the guy has an incredible knack for making big plays when his team needs them the most. This intangible is what makes the Broncos extremely dangerous against any team they play.
New England is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games, but just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as favorites. The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of its last 11 games as road favorites.
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall and a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of its last seven games as an underdog at home.
Head-to-head, the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Mile High and the home team in this series is 4-1 ATS in the last five games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last four meetings.
These two teams have combined for 11 straight wins, but unless this game ends-up in a tie, one of these streaks is coming to an end. New England finally finds a way to stop the Broncos down the stretch, but things remain close enough for Denver to cover with the six-points at home.
The Free NFL Pick: New England 20 Denver 17
