Lines, Odds, Picks and Preview |
The AFC’s top two seeds are set to square-off this Sunday afternoon for a trip to Super Bowl XLVI when the No.2 Baltimore Ravens travel to Gillette Stadium to take-on the No.1 New England Patriots in the conference championship. The game is scheduled to get underway at 3 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on CBS.
Baltimore punched its ticket to this title game with a hard-fought 20-13 victory over Houston this past Sunday as a 7.5-point home favorite with the total staying ‘under’ the 37-point line. The Ravens are now 13-4 straight-up on the year, but just 8-8-1 against the spread. They now go on the road where they went 4-4 both SU and ATS with the total going ‘over’ in six of the eight games.
Defense will continue to be Baltimore’s best shot to win this game as it remains the primary strength of this team. Its ability to get after the quarterback and create turnovers will be crucial to try and slow the Patriots down but the current health of safety Ed Reed’s ankle remains a concern. On offense look for a heavy dose of Ray Rice and the rushing attack as Joe Flacco continues to struggle in the passing game.
There was little struggle in last Saturday night’s demolition of Denver as New England opened a 28-point lead at the half and cruised to a 45-10 victory as a 14-point home favorite. It was the Patriots’ 14th win of the season against just three losses and it raised their record ATS to 10-7. They are now 8-1 SU at home and 5-4 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of the nine games.
Tom Brady and his high-powered offense tore the Broncos apart with 363 yards passing and six touchdowns while the much-maligned Patriot defense stepped-up to hold Denver to just 252 yards of total offense. If New England can duplicate this effort against the Ravens on Sunday, it will coast to its fourth Super Bowl appearance in the Bill Belichick coaching era.
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against the AFC and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games played in the month of January. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last 10 playoff games.
New England is 5-2 in its last seven games against the AFC, but just 1-5 ATS in its last six home playoff games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 11 of its last 17 playoff games in Foxborough.
The home team in this series is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings and Baltimore is 1-3-2 ATS in its last six trips to Gillette Stadium. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last four games overall.
The Ravens stunned the Patriots 33-14 as 3.5-point road underdogs the last time they met in the playoffs, but this time around stick with New England to take care of business at home with a convincing win that covers the 7.5 points.
The Pick: New England 27 Baltimore 17
