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The high-flying New Orleans Saints will try and extend their league-best nine-game winning streak this Saturday afternoon in a NFC Divisional Round showdown with the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park. The kick-off is slated for 4:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on FOX.
New Orleans posted its fourth-straight 40+ point game this past Saturday with a 45-28 pasting of Detroit in the Wildcard Round as a 10.5-point home favorite. It now takes its aerial show on the road where it went 5-3 straight-up on the year and 4-4 against the spread. The total went ‘over’ in 10 of their 17 games overall, but was an even 4-4 in the eight road games.
The Saints are clearly one of the fastest teams in the NFL on turf, but the grass at Candlestick could slow Drew Brees and the league’s No.1-ranked offense down a bit. You may see New Orleans try and run the ball a bit more against the 49ers with Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles.
San Francisco tied New Orleans with an overall record of 13-3 SU, but earned the No.2 seed on a tiebreaker. It was very profitable ATS with an overall record of 12-3-1 and a near-perfect 7-0-1 ATS record at home. The total went 7-9 overall and 4-4 in its eight games at home.
Defense will be the name of the game for the 49ers as they come into this game with the fourth-ranked squad in the NFL in total yards allowed and ranked second in points allowed; giving-up an average of just 14.3 points a game. One area of concern against the Saints is a pass defense that was ranked 16th in yards allowed.
The Saints are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. The total has gone ‘over’ in their last five games in the playoffs as favorites.
The 49ers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games as underdogs at home. The total has stayed ‘under’ in their last four games as underdogs in the playoffs.
New Orleans is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings between the two and 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to San Francisco. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of the last six meetings overall.
The past trends hold true one more time as the Saints continue their roll towards the Super Bowl at the expense of the 49ers’ inexperience in the postseason.
The Pick: New Orleans 28 San Francisco 17
