NFL AFC Playoffs Betting |
The Pittsburgh Steelers first stop on their quest for a return trip to the Super Bowl is this Sunday afternoon at Mile High Stadium for a Wildcard Round matchup with the AFC West champion Denver Broncos. The kick-off is slated for 4:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on CBS.
Pittsburgh hammered its way through the second half of the regular season with six victories in its last seven games to compile an overall record of 12-4 straight-up and 7-9 against the spread. It went 5-3 SU on the road but just 2-6 ATS. The total stayed ‘under’ in 10 of its 16 games overall and was 4-4 on the road.
Injuries have taken their toll on the Steelers down the stretch with running back Rashard Mendenhall lost for the playoffs with a torn ACL and Ben Roethlisberger hobbled with a high ankle sprain. Fortunately their defense should be able to carry the team in Sunday’s game. This unit ended the season ranked first in total yards and points allowed.
It has been a hard fall for Denver over the past three weeks after reeling-off six straight wins. It has been outscored 88-40 in losses to New England, Buffalo, and Kansas City on its way to an 8-8 SU record overall (7-9 ATS). The Broncos were just 3-5 SU at home this season and an even worse 1-7 ATS. The total went 9-7 overall and 5-3 at home.
Part of the problem has been the poor play of Tim Tebow and the Denver offense as it has basically ground to a halt in its recent slide. However, the bigger concern for this game could be a normally stout Broncos’ defense that was torched for 41 points against the Patriots and 40 points against the Bills.
The Steelers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on the road, but 9-2 ATS in their last 11 playoff games. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of their last six playoff games on the road.
The Broncos are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a winning record, but 5-1 ATS their last six playoff games at home. The total has gone ‘over’ in 13 of their last 18 home games.
Head-to-head in this series, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six games and the total has gone ‘over’ in five of the last seven meetings. Even a banged-up Steelers team is more than capable of getting past an over-achieving Denver squad that suddenly looks very average.
The Pick: Pittsburgh 31 Denver 17
