Super Bowl Betting preview
For sports fans, Super Bowl Sunday is one of the best days of the year. For bettors, it can be not only entertaining, but profitable as well.
This year’s Super Bowl predictably pitted the New Orleans Saints against the Indianapolis Colts. Through 14 weeks of the NFL season, these two teams combined for an unconscious 26-0 record, before both teams clinched home field advantage for the playoffs and rested their starters.
Both teams are No. 1 seeds, yet Las Vegas sports books have set the Colts as the distinct favorite, originally opening as 3.5 point favorites before being bet up to 5.5 points.
The over under is set at 56 points, the highest total for a Super Bowl ever. This is also not unexpected, as both teams have potent offenses that are capable of putting up tons of points. Indianapolis has scored 30 points or more eight times this season, while New Orleans has scored 30 or more 11 times. The two teams are averaging 28 and 35 points per playoff game, respectively. This has a lot to do with the all star play behind Saints quarterback Drew Brees and Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, who are both having stellar seasons from both a statistical and winning perspective.
Still, despite the fact that the over under is the highest total in Super Bowl history, bettors are already pounding the over. According to most sports books, 85 percent of the action is going on the over. Meanwhile, the public is hitting Indianapolis hard, which prompted sports books to push the point spread from 3.5 to 5.5 points. Bettors are still putting 73% of their money on the Colts, making New Orleans an even more attractive option.
The reason for this may be that people who watched the AFC and NFC Championship games felt that New Orleans got lucky in beating Minnesota on a field goal in overtime. That may be, but consider that the Saints had to get past the No. 2 seed Vikings, whereas the Colts faced off against an overachieving No. 5 seed New York Jets team. If the Colts had eked a win out over San Diego, the line and the general public sentiment may have been markedly different than it is now.
The funny thing about this match up is that both teams were two of the favorites to win the Super Bowl coming into the season. That may be disappointing for anybody rooting for an underdog story.
As the best bets on the board appear to be New Orleans and the points as well as the under, it may be worthwhile to hold off betting until closer to the game. The public always bets on the favorite and the over, so both of those numbers may become even more attractive as the game draws nearer.
Throw out the useless statistics and go with what 20 weeks of the NFL season has shown you. Do not pay attention to the fact that the Saints are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight games on grass, as Indianapolis is 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games on grass. Guess what? Someone has to win, and someone has to lose.
Other proposition bets may become more attractive as they get released. The first touchdown is a fun prop to bet on, and you may be able to get a good price on Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and Marques Colston. As both teams are pass happy, taking anybody but Reggie Wayne could offer a nice payout. Enjoy the game and make sure to take advantage of any edges that you may find along your way.
