US Open Tennis betting preview 2009

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For the last five years, the US Open has been significantly more suspenseful on the women’s side than on the men’s side. The ladies have seen five winners in as many years, while Roger Federer has won five straight and is the odds on favorite to make it six in a row this year.

The Swiss born Federer is listed between +115 and +130 to win the Open, by far the biggest favorite in the men’s field. Behind him is England’s Andy Murray, who is coming off a 2009 Rogers Masters tournament win in Montreal, Canada earlier this month.

Fan favorite and Spaniard Rafael Nadal is +675 to win the Open due to some reports that he may still have tendonitis in his knees. Nadal took off two months to rest his knees, but admitted to newspapers on Wednesday that “I don’t know if I arrive in best condition,” leaving a shadow of a doubt in many bettors minds as to whether or not he will be a threat to win it all. Luckily for Nadal, he is on the opposite side of the bracket from Federer, so he will not face the favorite until the Finals, if at all.

A value at +1550 is Andy Roddick, who met Federer earlier this summer in the 2009 Wimbledon Championships finals, losing 16-14 in tiebreakers in a match that lasted more than 4 hours and 15 minutes.

sports books consider six men’s players as legitimate threats to win it all. After Roddick, the next player most likely to win the Open is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at +7000, though Tsonga has had a miserable summer and many think that he may flame out of the tournament early.

The best two betting values in the men’s bracket are Tommy Haas at +25000 and Sam Querrey at +40000, who have both had good summers on the circuit and look like they may make a splash at the Open. Both, however, have to get past Federer to do so. Querrey has struggled in majors this year but got to the fourth round of the US Open in 2008 before losing to Nadal.

The field is a little more spread out on the women’s side, where Sports Books consider the Williams sisters to be the favorites to win it all. Serena is +175 and Venus is +500 to win the Open, while Elena Dementieva is behind the sisters at +700.

Serena may be playing with the most momentum on her side. A US Open win would net the younger Williams sister her third Grand Slam win of the year. Dementieva has been solid lately and the Russian women have been on fire lately – with Svetlana Kuznetsova winning the 2009 French Open and Maria Sharapova winning the 2008 Australian Open – so perhaps it is Dementieva’s time, as she brings in the No. 4 ranking in the world.

At +1300, Sharapova is one of the more intriguing betting values in the women’s tournament. Sharapova has been solid throughout the year, reaching the quarterfinals of the Warsaw Open, the French Open and the Olympus US Open Series.

One of the best values in the tournament and one of the most interesting storylines is Belgian born Kim Clijsters, who retired in 2007 and had a child before coming out of retirement this year. Since her announcement in March, Clijsters reached the quarterfinals in the Western & Southern Financial Group Women’s Open in Cincinnati, beating No. 13 Marion Bartoli, No. 20 Patty Schnyder and No. 6 Svetlana Kuznetsova along the way.

Clijsters then defeated No. 9 Victoria Azarenka in the Rogers Cup in Toronto, but lost to Jelena Jankovic later in the tournament. Possibly underrated at +1200, Clijsters is one of the sneakier picks in the Open.

The key to betting on anyone other than the odds on favorites to win the US Open is to look at a player’s path to the finals. Some players’ chances at winning are squashed due to a difficult draw, such as an early match against the Williams sisters or Federer on the men’s side.

Clearly the talent level is not spread out evenly, as only six players on the men’s side are better than 70 to 1 to win the Open. Players like Juan Ignacio Chela, currently not ranked in the Top 100 in the world, realistically have no chance of making noise in the tournament.

The best way to spot value is to find a player in the midst of a comeback such as Clijsters and Sharapova, or a player who is enjoying a solid summer season, like Querrey or Haas. Both of these types of players are typically undervalued as they are not the favorites to win the Open. Still, they have a boxer’s chance of making it to a quarterfinal or semifinal, and really, part of the fun in betting on tennis is to follow a player throughout a tournament like the US Open.