Western Conference Game 4
Golden State at Portland (TNT, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Warriors lead series 2-1
Portland came to play last Saturday as it captured a 120-108 victory over Golden State as a three-point home underdog. Damian Lillard led the Trail Blazers with 40 points, which included an eye opening 8-of-13 effort from 3-point land. Portland hit 57% (17-of-30) from 3-point land as a team and they also made 23-of-29 free throws, compared to just 10 freebies from Golden State.
The Warriors got great efforts from Draymond Green (37 points) and Klay Thompson (35 points) but it wasn’t enough to overcome the 3-point shooting barrage from Portland.
Reigning MVP Steph Curry hasn’t played in this series and early report had him scheduled to play on Monday but Warriors head coach Steve Kerr listed his status to ‘doubtful’ for Game 4. Curry has missed six of the last eight playoff games for the Warriors and the team has gone 4-2 without him.
Even though Curry is in doubt tonight, the oddsmakers opened Golden State as a 4 ½-point road favorite for Monday. The Warriors are minus-210 on the money line with Portland listed at plus-180.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Portland even up this series just based on what we’ve seen from them in this year’s playoffs. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 (3-1 ATS) at home in the playoffs and that shouldn’t be surprising since they went 28-13 SU and 21-20 ATS at the Moda Center during the regular season.
They’ve been fortunate to face some short-handed squads but wins are wins and if they continue to shoot a ridiculous percentage from 3-point land, the Blazers can play with anybody.
While Portland has been a great investment at home this season, backing the Warriors after a setback has been better. Golden State has gone 10-0 following a loss this season and it’s produced a 6-3-1 against the spread mark in those situations. The offense of the Warriors has been very sharp in these spots, averaging 120.2 PPG.
In the first round, Golden State pasted Houston 121-94 in Game 4 after dropping a one-point decision (97-96) to the Rockets in Game 3.
Knowing that the Spurs and Thunder are locked up at 2-2 in their conference semifinal matchup, I believe Golden State will have a greater sense of urgency on Monday and look to close out this series as quickly as possible.
Road favorites have gone 13-4 in this year’s NBA playoffs and have produced a 10-7 mark versus the number.
The adjusted series price has Golden State listed at minus-3000 while Portland is a 12/1 longshot.
The total for Game 4 has been pushed up to 214 after the first three games ranged from 210 to 212. The ‘over’ has gone 2-1 in this series and could easily be 3-0 if Portland didn’t lay an egg in the fourth quarter of Game 2.
The pair will square off in Game 5 on Wednesday from Oracle Arena.